TRANSPORT AND MIXING PHENOMENA RELATED TO OZONE EXCEEDANCES IN THE NORTHEAST U.S. (ANALYSES BASED ON NARSTO-NORTHEAST DATA)

WORKING DRAFT NO. 1

STI-996133-1710-WD1

Prepared by Donald L. Blumenthal, Frederick W. Lurmann, Naresh Kumar, Timothy S. Dye, Scott E. Ray, and Marcelo E. Korc

Sonoma Technology, Inc.
5510 Skylane Boulevard, Suite 101
Santa Rosa, CA 95403

Richard Londergan
Gary Moore
Earth Tech
196 Baker Avenue
Concord, MA 01742

Prepared for submission to the
Ozone Transport Assessment Group
Air Quality Analysis Workgroup

February 1997


This report is in DRAFT form. It is the first part of an assessment of regional transport issues in the Northeast and how well the transport and its effects are represented by models applied to the area. It has been prepared for submittal to the OTAG Air Quality Analysis Workgroup. The work is based on analyses of NARSTO-Northeast data. Suggestions for ways to clarify or improve the material are welcome.


PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This report has been prepared as an informational document for use by the OTAG Air Quality Analysis Workgroup. The report is based on analyses of NARSTO-Northeast data. It is a working draft document and has not been peer reviewed or reviewed by the NARSTO-Northeast participants. All conclusions are those of the authors and not of NARSTO-Northeast or the sponsors. It is being circulated for review and comment and will be revised in response to comments received. Suggestions for ways to clarify or improve the material are welcome.

The authors appreciate the cooperation and input of the NARSTO-Northeast participants. The report draws heavily on the NARSTO-Northeast database and on information presented at the First NARSTO-Northeast Data Analysis Symposium and Workshop at Norfolk VA in December 1996. We are especially grateful for data, analyses, and technical input from Bob Gaza and Doc Taylor of NYDEC, Bill Ryan of the University of Maryland, Jian Zhang of the State University of New York at Albany, and Paul Roberts, JerryAnderson, and Tami Haste of Sonoma Technology, Inc. (STI).

This effort was initiated and coordinated by Jeffrey West of General Public Utilities (GPU) and was made possible by funding from GPU, New England Electric System (NEES), and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).

The authors appreciate the review and comments on an initial draft by Jeff West, Brad Spooner of NEES, and Peter Mueller and Alan Hansen of EPRI. We also greatly appreciate the hard work and long hours of Carolee DeWitt, Sandy Barger, and Martina Shultz of the STI publications staff who made it possible to complete this report on a very short time schedule.


TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section
PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF TABLES
  1. INTRODUCTION
  2. OVERVIEW OF TRANSPORT AND MIXING PHENOMENA AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS
  3. OVERVIEW OF TRANSPORT REGIMES
  4. SYNOPTIC TRANSPORT REGIME
  5. CHANNELED FLOWS
  6. SURFACE FLOWS: URBAN PLUMES AND OFFSHORE TRANSPORT
  7. MIXING DEPTH STRUCTURE AND EVOLUTION ON EPISODE DAYS
  8. OZONE TRANSPORT ALOFT
  9. EFFECTS OF ALOFT OZONE ON SURFACE CONCENTRATIONS
  10. REFERENCES

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure

1-1. NARSTO-Northeast air quality sites and sampling locations

1-2. NARSTO-Northeast surface and upper-air meteorological sites

2-1. Schematic of transport regimes observed during NARSTO-Northeast

3-1. Evolution of the wind field above New Brunswick, NJ (Rutgers) on the night of July 31-August 1, 1995

3-2. Aircraft spiral and upper-air winds at Gettysburg, PA at 0600 EST on August 1, 1995

3-3. 12-hour resultant wind vectors for radar profiler sites from 0500 EST to 1700 EST July 14, 1995

3-4. 12-hour resultant wind vectors for radar profiler sites from 0500 EST to 1700 EST August 1, 1995

3-5. 24-hour resultant wind vectors for radar profiler sites from 1700 EST July 31, 1995 to 1700 EST August 1, 1995

3-6. CALMET back trajectories at 10, 500, and 1000 m agl ending at 1500 EST on July 14, 1995

3-7. CALMET back trajectories at 10, 500, and 1000 m agl ending at 1500 EST on July 15, 1995

3-8. CALMET back trajectories at 10, 500, and 1000 m agl ending at 1500 EST on August 1, 1995

4-1. Surface and 850 mb synoptic conditions and winds for July 14, 1995 at 0700 EST

4-2. Surface and 850 mb synoptic conditions and winds for July 15, 1995 at 0700 EST

4-3. Surface and 850 mb synoptic conditions and winds for July 31, 1995 at 0700 EST

4-4. Surface and 850 mb synoptic conditions and winds for August 1, 1995 at 0700 EST

5-1. Upper-air winds at New Brunswick, NJ (Rutgers) on July 14 and July 15, 1995

5-2. Upper-air winds at New Brunswick, NJ (Rutgers) on July 31, 1995 and August 1, 1995

5-3. Upper-air winds on July 14, 1995 at 0300 EST

5-4. Upper-air winds on July 14, 1995 at 1500 EST

5-5. Upper-air winds on July 15, 1995 at 0300 EST

5-6. Upper-air winds on July 15, 1995 at 1500 EST

5-7. Upper-air winds on July 31, 1995 at 0300 EST

5-8. Upper-air winds on July 31, 1995 at 1500 EST

5-9. Upper-air winds on August 1, 1995 at 0300 EST

5-10. Upper-air winds on August 1, 1995 at 1500 EST

5-11. CALMET back trajectories at 500 m agl ending at 0500 EST on July 14, 1995

5-12. CALMET back trajectories at 500 m agl ending at 0500 EST on July 15, 1995

5-13. CALMET back trajectories at 500 m agl ending at 0500 EST on August 1, 1995

6-1. Surface (A) and aloft (B) ozone concentrations on the afternoon of July 14, 1995

6-2. CALMET back trajectories at 10 m agl ending at 1500 EST on July 14, 1995

6-3. Maximum 1-hour ozone concentrations (ppb) and selected surface back trajectories on August 1, 1995

6-4. Surface shoreline and offshore wind data from August 1, 1995

6-5. Vertical distribution of ozone, NO, NOy, and temperature offshore of New Hampshire on the afternoon of August 1, 1995

6-6. Ozone concentrations measured on the Scotia Prince Ferry from 0900-2000 EST on August 1, 1995

7-1. Time series of the hourly estimates of mixing depth (thin line) and the subsidence inversion (thick line) from July 13 to July 15, 1995 at New Brunswick, NJ and Gettysburg, PA

7-2. Time series of the hourly estimates of mixing depth (thin line) and the subsidence inversion (thick line) from July 31 to August 2, 1995 at New Brunswick, NJ and Gettysburg, PA

7-3. Rawinsonde potential temperature profiles at Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD from July 31 to August 2, 1995 at 1100 EST

8-1. Upper-air winds at Gettysburg, PA on July 31, 1995 and August 1, 1995

8-2. Upper-air winds at Holbrook, PA on July 31, 1995 and August 1, 1995

8-3. Maximum one-hour average ozone concentrations on July 31, 1995

8-4. Ozone, temperature, and NOy vertical profiles for July 31, 1995 afternoon flights

8-5. Aloft ozone and wind speed data collected at Gettysburg, PA from 1815 EST on July 31 through 0630 EST on August 1, 1995

8-6. Ozone, temperature, and NOy vertical profiles for August 1, 1995 early morning flights

8-7. CALMET back trajectories at 10, 500, and 1000 m agl ending at 0500 EST on August 1, 1995

8-8. Maximum one-hour average ozone concentrations on August 1, 1995

8-9. Vertical distribution of ozone, NO, NOy, and temperature at New Haven, CT on the afternoon of August 1, 1995

8-10. Ozone, temperature, and NOy vertical profiles for July 14, 1995 early morning flights

9-1. (A) Estimated and observed surface ozone concentrations at Reston, VA on July 14, 1995 due to mixing down of aloft O3 and (B) mixing layer height calculated from soundings at Sterling, VA

9-2. Maximum surface layer ozone concentration due to ozone carryover aloft using the CB-IV mechanism

9-3. Maximum surface layer ozone concentration due to ozone carryover aloft using the SAPRC93 mechanism

9-4. Increment in maximum ozone due to ozone aloft above 40 ppb using the CB-IV mechanism

9-5. Increment in maximum ozone due to ozone aloft above 40 ppb using the SAPRC93 mechanism


LIST OF TABLES

Table

9-1. Initial conditions (ppb) for August 1, 1995 simulation for the CB-IV mechanism

9-2. Initial conditions (ppb) for ROG species for August 1, 1995 simulation for the

SAPRC93 mechanism

9-3. Mixing heights on August 1, 1995

9-4. Emissions by hour (tons/hr) of the day

9-5. Contributions of different terms to surface level maximum ozone using the CB-IV

mechanism

9-6. Contributions of different terms to surface level maximum ozone using the SAPRC93

mechanism


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